Changing Energy Demands During COVID -19 in Pakistan
Changing Energy Demands During COVID -19 in Pakistan
Around the globe, the steps taken to monitor the dissemination of COVID-19 have been remarkable in modern times. Such precautionary steps have contributed to a downturn in much of the transport and aviation industries. The slowdown has also begun to demonstrate its effect on Pakistan electricity infrastructure. There have been drastic short-term shifts in the past few months.
Some power generation and distribution companies are postponing planned non-critical maintenance in order to avoid bringing additional people into facilities. Instead, they are focusing resources on maintaining the power supply.
- Demand for Petroleum Products and Aviation Fuel is plunging
Due to an enormous reduction in flights, public transport and road traffic, April was expected to record the lowest monthly liquid fuels demand since 1998. A greater than 40% reduction will follow if the UK further restricts the movement of people. There has been a reduced demand for electricity owing to the cancellation of major sporting events and concerts as well as the closure of many businesses. Some states have banned the disconnection of power for those who have fallen into financial difficulty due to the pandemic. Deferring or waiving customers bills may have implications for power companies finances. In the future, some companies may try to get more electricity from renewable energy sources if demand and revenues decline as these sources cost less to operate than facilities which run on fossil fuels.
- Weekdays look like Weekends
There is usually a 10-20 percent decrease between a weekday and a weekend day, based on the time of year. Demand for electricity has plummeted drastically after the closing of stores, warehouses, offices and even basic utilities under extreme restrictions. The demand for electricity on a normal working day is still closer to that of a weekend or a bank holiday. Moving on from Prime Minister Imran khan lockdown announcement (on Monday 23 March) caused an immediate 5-10% reduction in electricity demand. Last time demand was this low for the month of March was back in 1971, a further indication of how the COVID -19 measures are changing people’s routines and the energy they use to underpin these. April’s demand is most likely to fall even further because even more people are now working from home and schools are shut. This has also caused another interesting effect. The normal morning ‘peak’ of electricity use has flattened out as electrical appliances used are spread over a longer period. Something similar happens on Sunday mornings.
3. Declining Carbon Emissions
The resulting decrease in demand means a proportionate reduction in emissions because so many consumers are not consuming petrol , diesel and in particular aviation fuel. The reduction in air and vehicle traffic is projected to dramatically decrease carbon emissions in April, while at the same time leading to an increase in food and other critical distribution services. Lower electricity output also includes coal and some gas power plants.
It is clear that steps to monitor the dissemination of COVID-19 may have major impacts on British energy systems. After the quarantine era comes to an end in the following months, it may also be that the overall energy market will recover further in order to take advantage of cheaper fossil fuels, bringing an end to the cycle of unprecedented declines in energy consumption and carbon intensity.
Demand in the country for electricity, natural gas and petroleum products has dropped dramatically as a result of the coronavirus pandemic
Senior government officials told Dawn that electricity consumption had plummeted by almost 30 per cent and authorities had been compelled to provide uninterrupted power supply to even high-loss areas to maintain frequency. For example, the total power demand went down to about 8,500MW on Monday against 12,500-13,000MW projections based on actual consumption last year.
These sources said the consumption of electricity in January and February was almost in line with projections of almost 11,500-12,000MW. In contrast, the March consumption has stood around 10,000-10,500MW against projections of about 15,000MW made by the power system operator.
An official said the projection for April was about 18,000GW but it was unlikely to be achieved given the current situation. He explained that not only the Covid-19 but recent rainy spells had also affected the power demand but major reduction was caused by the lockdown, forcing industries, offices and commercial activities to shut down. This was resulting in higher capacity charges and would ultimately affect the consumer tariff and cause cash flow problems for power companies.
Likewise, gas consumption had plunged by about 40-50pc and linepack of the gas network was in critical levels due to reduced off-take by consumers. This is despite a significant cut in liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports as recipient companies faced liquidated damages and demurrages.
Officials said the total gas sales in recent days had come down by half. For example, the LNG sales in the Sui Northern Gas Pipelines Ltd (SNGPL) network — Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa — dropped to just 430 million cubic feet per day on Monday against projections and arrangements of about 800mmcfd.
In overall terms, the gas injection in the SNGPL system stood at about 1,420mmcfd on Tuesday against total sales of about 1,400 mmcf which meant surplus supplies were flowing into the system. This is raising safety challenges to the gas pipeline network.
The power system was currently drawing about 275mmcfd for electricity generation against almost double the quantity in the same days last year. The gas consumption in the industrial sector had dropped to about 130mmcfd against its earlier projection of about 260mmcfd, which meant half of the industry was currently closed down.
Also, the CNG sector was consuming only 15mmcfd gas against its projections of 40mmcfd. The only hope for the gas companies at present was the operationalisation of fertiliser plants. The power sector had placed orders for LNG supplies for April at 450mmcfd which also appeared uncertain in the evolving circumstances while import orders were already in place.
The petroleum division officials said the import vessels from Qatar had been curtailed to 3 from 5 to cope with the situation. They said there were demands in certain quarters for declaration of force majeure in LNG and IPPs contracts but that was not an option under consideration because of its adverse consequences for the country in the long run.
An official said the government was in contact with its energy suppliers to address challenges in an inclusive manner and ensure win-win for all instead of fighting cases in international courts, adding the force majeure did not absolve a party of its obligations but could only secure a delay.
Moreover, the consumption of petroleum products apparently faced more than 60-70pc cut as public and private transport came almost to a standstill following lockdowns announced by the provincial governments to keep their citizens indoors.
Even, the railways passenger traffic was stopped and freight movement drastically reduced as the need for movement of oil products declined and left the Pakistan Railways only with coal and limited transportation of a few other commodities, said an official. The railways had to resort to about Rs 6 billion injection from the federal government to meet salary obligations of its staff.
Officials said the consumption of petrol and high speed diesel had dropped by 60 to 75pc respectively over the last two weeks as provinces started announcing lockdowns. High Speed Diesel consumption has suffered more than petrol, he said.